It’ll be a typical New Jersey nor’easter.
In South Jersey and the Jersey Shore, it’ll be a rain maker. Northwest of there, it’ll snow.
However, soaking rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding will make this a storm that needs to taken with caution.
Storm summary
A low- to medium-impact nor’easter will hit New Jersey.
For South Jersey, rain will begin Saturday afternoon. Expect a windswept rain Saturday evening into part of the night. The steady rain will end before dawn Sunday.
A few showers will linger through Sunday as it stays windy. There will be some snow with this, more than likely.
Coastal flooding is expected Sunday morning. It may linger into Monday.
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Changes since the last forecast
The biggest change is removing the possibility of accumulating snow for the Jersey Shore and most of South Jersey.
Also, the start and end times have been pushed earlier.
Rain will begin between 2 and 5 p.m. Saturday in South Jersey and exit between 1 and 4 a.m. Sunday. Additional showers will be around throughout the day Sunday, mainly north of the Atlantic City Expressway.
Winds will be strongest Saturday night.
How is this happening?
Low pressure is moving from coast to coast.
On Wednesday, the low-pressure system entered Northern California. From there, it brought winter storm alerts to California, Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday.
The low will then move across the Deep South on Friday. Then, it’ll cut to the northeast. It’ll exit the North Carolina or Virginia coast Saturday night.
High pressure will block it from moving to the Northeast initially, though. This is mainly why South Jersey will get rain. Instead, the low pressure will move north to just off the Jersey Shore.
Mild onshore winds will flood South Jersey and the shore with above-freezing air. It’ll hug the Long Island and Cape Cod coasts Sunday. It’ll then move due east, out to sea Monday.
Rain Between 0.75 and 1.25 inches of rain will be likely with this storm. Given how saturated the ground is, flooding is a concern.
A few roads should flood. A few streams and creeks will rise above their banks. Between the darkness of night and the rain, you’ll need a little extra time on the roads.
The heaviest rain will be from 7 p.m. Saturday to 1 a.m. Sunday.
Wind damage and power outages will be likely east of the Garden State Parkway and along the immediate Delaware Bayshore. Most will be OK. West of there, expect gusty winds, but not enough to cause issues.
Expect sustained winds 20 to 30 mph east of the parkway and along the bayshore Saturday night, with top gusts around 50. Other areas will have gusts up to 40 mph.
Winds will be from the east, then northeast Saturday night. Winds will come out of the north and west during the day Sunday, with top gusts around 30 mph.
For nor’easter standards, this is on the lower end.
Coastal flooding
Two rounds of coastal flooding will be likely with the nor’easter.
The Sunday morning one will be the most significant. This will be between 4 and 10 a.m.
For Ocean County on north, expect a storm surge of two to three feet. This is on the border of minor and moderate flood stage.(tncms-asset)2dca2c66-ab39-11ee-a15c-e357db6bfa6c[9](/tncms-asset) Minor
flood stage is the type of flooding we see a few dozen times a year. The susceptible bayside roads will flood. There will be a few road closures. However, no damage to property is expected.
Moderate flood stage, meanwhile, could result in up to a foot of salt water. More roads will be closed, and buildings near the bay that aren’t raised can flood.
For Atlantic and Cape May counties, plus the Delaware Bay, this will be minor flood stage. (tncms-asset)2cf24b8e-ab39-11ee-b548-e7244213a5b1[10](/tncms-asset) I doub
t Sunday p.m.’s high tide will yield flooding, save for corners of Barnegat Bay.
Monday morning’s high tide will see spotty areas of minor stage tidal flooding from 5 to 10 a.m. This will mainly be Ocean County on north.
Atlantic City International Airport’s 704-day streak without an inch of snow will continue (that’s the second longest since records started in 1945). Up and down the Jersey Shore will be plain rain. Even interior South Jersey should only see rain.
The possibility for snow will stretch from Sandy Hook (Monmouth County) to Jackson (Ocean County) to Salem (Salem County) on northwest.
Can the forecast change?I don’t see changes, at least for South Jersey and the Jersey Shore. The start and end times may change by another hour or two. This will be a plain rainstorm, though.
Any changes would come farther north, where the rain-snow line is.
Next week Perhaps damaging winds and flooding rain threaten our region via a storm next Tuesday into Wednesday. An intense low-pressure system will move from the Great Plains into the Midwest those days.
Thunderstorms will be possible as well, as a surge of warm air moves into the state. This could be similar to the Dec. 17-18 storm, which broke rainfall records and brought power outages to a few thousand Atlantic City Electric customers.