Happy last day of the first week of sittings!
(Kamala to Joe voice: “We did it.”)
Given that we are only half way through the sitting through, there is still a hell of a lot to get through.
Including the treasurer, Jim Chalmers handing down his economic statement. Chalmers has been previewing this for some time, so no one should be surprised.
Here is the main message:
Australia is outperforming much of the world, but that doesn’t make it easier to pay the bills at home.
Our high inflation is primarily but not exclusively global.
It will subside but not overnight.
It’s been turbocharged by a decade of domestic failures on skills, on energy and on supply chains which just aren’t resilient enough.
And the numbers?
This has cut half a percentage point from growth for the last financial year, for this financial year, and for next financial year.
It’s expected that real GDP grew by 3¾ per cent in 2021-22, instead of 4 ¼ per cent as was estimated pre-election.
The pre-election forecast for GDP growth in 2022-23 was 3½ per cent. This has now been revised down to 3 per cent growth.
And growth is expected to slow further in 2023-24, at 2 per cent – down from the 2½ per cent previously predicted.
But you don’t need Treasury boffins to tell you that. You can feel it. You can feel it looking at your bank account, in the decisions you make at the supermarket and whether or not you take the car.
Inflation is going to go up. We know that. Chalmers and the RBA both expect it to start levelling off before too long, which is good news, but the US Federal Reserve has again lifted its rates – in a way not seen since the mid-1990s.
Related: Fed announces another three-quarter-point increase in interest rates
So it is a complicated global economy but the last decade has not left us in a great place to deal with it. With yesterday’s inflation data, the small gains made over the last 10 years in wage growth, have been wiped out. People on fixed incomes, especially those on unemployment payments, are in even more dire straits. And the energy price bill shock won’t filter through until the next quarter – those bills are coming in now, and it’s only going to drive people further into financial distress.
We’ll cover all the news as it happens. Mike Bowers and Katharine Murphy are leading the way, as always, with Paul Karp, Tory Shepherd and Josh Butler finding out what exactly is happening in the building.
You have me, Amy Remeikis, with you for most of the day.
I have had freckles for breakfast, so I am already eating my feelings. Let’s get straight into it.